GBN Blog
Impact of Climate Change
Climate change poses unique challenges to U.S. national security and interests. Yet current approaches and methods for understanding climate change and its impacts fall short in their efforts to help us anticipate and prepare for these eventualities. This white paper is intended to help imaging potential impacts of climate change and to develop alternative analytic approaches for understanding climate change disruptions.
In this paper, we explore several of the possible impacts of continued, reltively unrestrained greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next half-century. These impacts, although not always highly likely, are plausible. In particular, we focus on already stressed systems that are vulnerable to being driven over the edge or past a tipping point by either radical or gradual shifts in climate. By doing so, we offer an alternative, analytic approach – a “system vulnerability approach”- to understanding and anticipating climate change disruptions. We conclude by considering both the security implications of the climate impacts discussed in this paper, and the analytic opportunities provided by the systems vulnerabilities approach.
Impacts of Climate Change [PDF 467KB]
5 Responses to “Impact of Climate Change”
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Peter Schwartz
GBN cofounder and chairman. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, Peter previously headed scenario planning for Royal Dutch/Shell and directed the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International.
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I was watching modern marvels, and thought of the salinity levels in th gulf stream. There is something that I thought of while listing simple salt water aquarium maintenance. The salinity of the water obviously varies with temperature it goes lower when colder higher when warmer. But couldn’t this basic thinking if necessary save the gulf stream going. Adding salinity into the water (obviously a HUGE INDEVER) could help us keep it running. But if the planet say recovered we would also need to lower salinity later, in theory.