How different is scenario planning done for public versus private purposes? In asking this question, GBN cofounder Jay Ogilvy and practitioner Erik Smith distill a set of lessons based on regional scenario planning projects run by GBN throughout the 1990s. They then apply these lessons to a 2001-2002 project on the future of California’s Central Valley. They argue that scenario planning in the public domain demands greater clarity of client attention to different constituencies—particularly in regions—even though the art and craft of the actual practice is very similar across public and private projects.

This article was published in the "Surviving Uncertainty" issue of Development (December 2004: 47.4), the journal of the Society for International Development, and is posted with permission.

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