The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century
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“The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century Scenario Narratives Report” is the result of a 2007-2008 project of the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment working group with Global Business Network. The purpose of this project, and these scenarios, is to systematically consider the long-term social, technological, economic, environmental, and political impacts on Arctic Marine Navigation of Key Finding #6 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) published by the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee in November 2004. Because this project rests on Key Finding #6, all of the scenarios assume continued global climate change that results in significantly less Arctic ice cover, at least in the summer, throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
These scenarios are meant to summarize and communicate a set of plausible and different stories of the future in which critical uncertainties play out in ways that challenge planning decisions being made in the present. For this scenarios project on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation, we convened two workshops to gather the perspectives and ideas of a highly diverse group of stakeholders. The first workshop was held at the GBN office in San Francisco in April 2007, and the second at the offices of Aker Arctic Technology in Helsinki in July 2007.
The scenario narratives, although written by GBN, are based upon material created by participants at the two AMSA scenario creation and analysis workshops in 2007. Through brainstorming, work in small groups, and spirited plenary discussion, project participants collectively agreed that two factors—“Governance” (more vs. less stability) and “Resources & Trade” (more vs. less demand)—are the most important and uncertain in shaping the future of Arctic marine navigation in mid-century. By crossing these two critical uncertainties, participants formed the scenario matrix that produced four scenarios.
These scenarios are meant to summarize and communicate a set of plausible and different stories of the future in which critical uncertainties play out in ways that challenge planning decisions being made in the present. For this scenarios project on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation, we convened two workshops to gather the perspectives and ideas of a highly diverse group of stakeholders. The first workshop was held at the GBN office in San Francisco in April 2007, and the second at the offices of Aker Arctic Technology in Helsinki in July 2007.
The scenario narratives, although written by GBN, are based upon material created by participants at the two AMSA scenario creation and analysis workshops in 2007. Through brainstorming, work in small groups, and spirited plenary discussion, project participants collectively agreed that two factors—“Governance” (more vs. less stability) and “Resources & Trade” (more vs. less demand)—are the most important and uncertain in shaping the future of Arctic marine navigation in mid-century. By crossing these two critical uncertainties, participants formed the scenario matrix that produced four scenarios.
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